eventually climatology will right itself and florida will get walloped a few times. sure, huge economic impacts for the state, and all of the associated repercussions. but then again, this is florida we're talking about. florida is SUPPOSED to get hit by hurricanes.. it's part of the natural cycle that gives the state it's environmental niches. just because you put millions of people there doesn't mean that's going to change. for all that insurance you guys pay it would be kinda stupid to keep getting off the hook.
on a current weather note.. the global modeling (gfs) i've been following has been getting steadily less reliable, in terms of run-to-run consistency.. for the past two weeks. i've seen so many different versions of bastardi's pattern evolution that i really don't know which to believe. if teleconnections are going to work.. maybe that gulf system will pop up in a week. right now i'm going to go with no systems for the next seven days. don't see any real indications for that time period, and more doubtful on the potential gulf system. if it blows up, expect it will have to develop very quickly, be short-lived. the general longwave pattern for the last month has been.. western trough, trough in the canadian maritimes.. mostly flat ridge between. that looks to continue.. don't think it will foster much development.
one other note.. sst anomalies have me thinking the atlantic ridge will have a weakness near 50-60w, but will be strong in the east atlantic and strong near the east coast.
HF 0235z07june