Hello everyone, aside from posting our 2004 hurricane forecast discussion in the storm forum, haven't been an active poster recently. I enjoy reading these discussions here though...can hardly wait until we get some TC development.

Regarding the east Atlantic, the waves aren't looking too shabby. But I wouldn't say they look any better than at this time last year...at this time last year a strong wave had just exited the coast and would (a few days down the road) become a rare early storm...TD2. Also the overall organization of the waves and how active the ITCZ is will fluctuate in weekly cycles in conjunction with the 2 phases of the Madden Julian Oscillation. Right now, the MJO pattern across the globe is not real defined so we're not seeing any marked decrease or increase in wave organization...hopefully we'll see the positive and negative MJO line up and ready to progress in the next couple of days. Knowing the MJO is also helpful to know days/weeks in advance when we'll see a burst (or lull) of activity, particularly in the heart of the season.

The SW Caribbean disturbance won't do anything...it'll get shoved into central America before too long, and it's time over water won't amount to much due to the strong westerly shear being induced by the subtropical jet and upper level ridge in the east Pacific.

So overall the tropics look to be in check for the next week at the very least. TWW, Kevin, and I did forecast no development in June for this season (mostly based on climatological patterns)...guess we'll see how that pans out.