Exactly right H/F. All that shear is the result of an Upper Low at the vortex of an upper trof peeling off to the SW. As of Monday, ridging was expected to build over the gulf toward the end of the weekend leaving anything left in it with a free ride to do whatever it wants to. But I haven't looked at any extended range GFS 500mb charts lately. I'll try to take a look tonight if possible.

FWIW, SOI remained negative for the 3rd straight day (and first time since April) probably in response to all the tropical action in the Westack. Bastardi's Gil Clark "Pulsing" teleconnection doesn't work with a negative SOI, only a positive one. However, the NRL tracks for the two West PAC systems are very interesting. We got to look at plenty of far west activity there last year, some of which preceeded Texas hits.

SW Caribbean has more convection today than it has for a week. I knew the last stuff wasn't going to last 7-10 days as it got pulled up toward Texas over the last 2 or 3 days. The stuff down there now should be able to ride around the NE side of the ULL as it backs off SW and open an avenue into the eastern gulf for an increase in moisture (if nothing else).

Steve