LI Phil
(User)
Fri Jun 11 2004 03:41 PM
accuwx tropical discussion

No matter what happens with this wave over the weekend, it will certainly be interesting:

"Tropical waves moving through the Atlantic remain rather disorganized and are unlikely to develop into anything important through the weekend. However, the interaction of an upper level low near the Yucatan and an approaching wave near Jamaica could lead to the formation of a low pressure area just north of the Yucatan Sunday or Sunday night. That low pressure area could then become an organized tropical system early next week.

Weather maps show an upper level low nearly stationary near the Yucatan. A tropical wave along 94 west interacted with this upper level system yesterday causing an expanded area of clouds, rain and thunderstorms. That wave has moved on to the west and is no longer having an impact on the northwest Caribbean. However, another tropical wave along 80 west is moving west at about 10-15kts. This wave will interact with the upper level system near the Yucatan. This will maintain a large area of rain and thunderstorms over the northwest Caribbean through Saturday. Model output from the U.S. global model and the Canadian global model are showing an area of low pressure forming north of the Yucatan on Sunday. If such development occurs then there's some chance this low might become an organized tropical system by Monday. At this point much of this is speculation since development of this nature is very difficult to forecast. However, tropical formation in this area is common in June. So, that is another reason why there is concern for development."

Cheers & Peace,

LI Phil
( Monday?)



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