I remember last year when the soon to be Bill was in this same position. I remember a big mess of convection over the Yucatan, and everyone was writing it off, saying the wave was dead and nothing was to come of it. So i decided to go to sleep about 2am and the next morning, at 9 my parents woke me up and said there was a tropical storm named Bill in the Gulf...That was a big suprise to me, I was like...what the heck happened that I missed. But I dont think that will happen with this disturbance, just tellin my story about the formation of Bill last year. I'd give it about a 30% chance. Mostly a rain event along the Central Gulf Coast.