i keep hearing downplay of this system, things like: 'an upper low is causing it' or 'it won't be purely tropical'. but consider this: the system is moving into the subtropics, and systems in the subtropics almost always have to contend with shear and upper lows. the problem with that is that you get tropical cyclones--warm core, nonfrontal lows--in shear situations like this every year. like that system in may. it may be assymetric due to all of its convection getting stripped one way, but if it has a closed center and no frontal boundary, gale-near gale winds, is over tropical waters and has a warm core, it's a tropical cyclone.
anyway.. chances aren't all that rosy for this one. the low level easterlies are strong on the east side of the ULL, which is where a storm would get some induced ridging. to the west there is little in the way of convection. if something does form it will likely be of that awkward, hybrid-appearing ilk that the nhc likes to not classify... initially at least, probably all the way to the coast. enough globals are being suggestive, but it doesn't have that definite closed look.. more of that almost-closed, would-be-if-not-sheared-heavily appearance. perhaps a fast-mover caught in the flow that does a quick spurt of intensification.. a weak system by any means. what joe b has said, i'll throw my confidences that way. 30-40% that we get something definite, most likely something of dubious appearance that the nhc hesitates on. you guys know the drill (may 22-25 system).
LI phil, if you get your system, i'll buy you a beer for your lucky call. but you've got to come south to get it.
HF 0254z12june