not terribly surprised about the invest. it looks a tad more promising today, and i've got a hunch on what the big obstacle it will be dealing with is. really already been foreseen by bastardi, with the assymetric system he was describing. there appears to be a weak surface trough associated with 93L on the western periphery of its convection, which may eventually become its low center if it continues to organize. the centroid looks to be around 22/93.. 120 miles or so northwest of merida on the yucatan. this system shouldn't organize quickly, first recon probably won't send back a vortex message tomorrow (assuming things progress). if bastardi's timing is on, there is a 72 hour window for an alex to develop; chances of that look to be where john c put em.. 40% or so. globals still aren't very enthusiastic with this system.
a side note: gale center should cut off in the northwest atlantic, somewhere north/northeast of bermuda, for early next week. though doubtful, there is an outside chance it will hybridize. the western pacific is active.. assuming an mjo wave is inbound, we may get a period of invests trhough the rest of the month, if nothing else.
HF 1807z12june