anon, that's off-base. globals keep the upper low/trough through the forecast period, so that factor isn't going away. remember that tropical cyclones often form in a shear environment. the shear isn't all that bad (isn't all that good either). i guess saying there is a zero percent chance, there's roughly a sixty percent chance you'll get your outcome. but that's not how probability statistics are meant to work (or else, all you'd ever see on the weather forecast is a zero or 100 percent chance of rain). i'm sure if the nhc thought there was a zero percent chance they wouldn't be sending recon. i guess you're trying to be funny.
rob and i are from different schools of thought about where this thing starts out on the 'tropical-ness' scale. if its in the tropics, over warm waters, convective and closed off it's a tropical cyclone in my book. but then i really don't know how this thing would look on a theta-e diagram. incipient systems even in the deep tropics sometimes start with a cold profile (not something i would hold against them if they have the other necessary features). the models show slightly higher heights overhead the convection (thunderstorm outflow?).. but i doubt that's a true indicator. i guess the other way of thinking is probably more correct, because its what the official sources tend to go by. i listened to joe b a little too much a few years back and tend to think classification standards are often too stringent, but then again five hundred million red chinese dont give a ****. neither does the nhc.
if it's revving up tomorrow and nhc dances around the issue half the board will be complaining about it, which happens every other day when we've got an active storm. it's the way of the world.
HF 2040z12june