I still don't really see that this will become a tropical cyclone...time is not on its side, and it really has a ways to go...

(unofficial) IWIC Atlantic Basin Tropical Weather Discussion - 13 June 2004 - 10:45 AM EDT

The situation in the Gulf of Mexico has become rather chaotic over the past 12 hours or so. The broad low level circulation that developed yesterday has continued to scoot off to the west-northwest closer to the northern Mexican coastline, while all of the convection has remained further east in the central Gulf of Mexico. Early visible imagery hints that this low level circulation is also becoming elognated. In order for this circulation to develop, convection will have to shift or rebuild over it. Given the recent convection trends, and the upper level low-driven dry air in the vicinity of the exposed circulation, redevelopment of convection appears highly unlikely. This low level circulation expected continue to move uneventfully to the west-northwest and dissipate with time.

This leaves us with the poorly organized mass of convection in the central Gulf of Mexico. In essence, the shape of the convection is an arc, with slow cyclonic motion noted. Convection is being inhibited to the south of the flow due to dry air being undercutted from the upper level low in the Bay of Campeche. There is no evidence whatsoever of another low level circulation within this large mass. Satellite imagery animation over the past 12 hours shows that the "arc" may be trying to bend inward on the left flank, which could lead to more of a distorted comma shape later today. The global models, including the GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, and UKMET, all develop a new, though still broad, low level circulation within this convection over the next day or so as they lose the current one off to the west. This does not seem all that unreasonable given the recent convection configuration trends already mentioned. The process will not occur right away, as the convection still has to organize into a more concentrated shape, and the low level circulation to the west has to dissipate or weaken significantly so that a new one can take over.

As a result, time is thus clearly something this disturbance needs, but does not have. A shortwave trough is still going to dig down into the northern Gulf of Mexico within the next day or so. As this occurs, upper level southerly shear will rapidly increase in the vicinity of the disturbance. Based on the average of progged times of when the shear will come into play by the global models, this system has only about 24 hours to organize, develop a new low level circulation, and become a classified tropical cyclone. Afterwards, southerly shear will blow most of the convection north and east of any low level circulation that might be present. If the system is a classified tropical cyclone when that occurs, no doubt it will not strengthen any further, and if anything will just weaken back into a disorganized disturbance.

Trackwise, the main area of convection will continue to move slowly to the northwest along the southeastern prehiphery of the subtropical ridge. After 24 hours or so, the convection, possibly with a new low level circulation, will then be steered more quickly to the north as the shortwave trough moves through. The system is expected to come ashore somewhere from Louisiana to to the western Florida Panhandle late Monday night, though the area of showers and thunderstorms will cover a large area and be displaced more to the east. So Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle may end up getting the most weather from this disturbance. The main threat will be heavy rainfall. There does not appear to be time for this to organize into a tropical cyclone before it feels the impact from shear, and we expect a weak hybrid at the very most. All in all, tropical development still appears very unlikely.

Elsewhere, all is quiet.

But if this were to develop...I know it'd make LI Phil happy.