Phil, the dominant LLC is still further west...exposed of any convection and basically has no chance of developing. What the recon is doing though is seeing if there's a new LLC where most of the convection is. Even if they don't find one, we probably will see a new LLC further east over the next day or 2 given how the global models pick up on intense low level vorticity as the convection moves northward.

It's so disorganized. If the recon doesn't find an LLC strong enough to be called a TD later today, I doubt it ever will. Strong shear ahead of the shortwave already moving into the Gulf...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html