we have had active seasons with slow starts recently:
1998--we didnt have our first storm until July 28 and had a total of 14 storms
1999--we didnt have our second storm on August 19 and there were 12 that year
2000--the first storm was on August 4 and there were 14 storms
2001-there were two storms before mid-August and there were 15 storms, oddly enough 7 formed after September
2002-first storm July 15 and 12 that year

a slow start is somewhat boring, but is by no means a precursor of a quiet season
that said, and the fact that the Eastern Pacific has had no storms yet this month (quiet pacific normally=active atlantic), i am re-upping my forecast to 12/7/3