HF,

Great post, as always. I'm still trying to learn about all the dynamics that come into play with each new season (MJO, ENSO, SOI, XYZ, etc.). But the more we look at it, the more it seems it is truly random...not that there aren't good analogs, and I think the experts are getting much better at being able to predict them ahead of time...but it still seems that each season is one "to each it's own." Think about it. We've been WAY overdue for a major strike, but haven't seen one (I mean TRULY major) since Andrew and Hugo. Sure, we had Opal & Floyd, but they were waxing (or is that waning?) upon arrival. And those happened (Andy & Hugs) during a decrease in activity cycle. 2004 could be very "active" as far as named storms are considered, but have (thankfully), no US landfallers.

Just as I was wrong with my 6/14 call for Alex, I'll stick with my #'s and still call for a major US landfall, though I sure don't want one. Heck, we could only have four named storms but if one of those is a CAT IV, then I'd rather have 16 with no US landfalls.

Sorry about the babbling, just a slow time so I felt like imparting this diatribe.

Peace,

LI Phil