SOI has strongly reversed back to negative. We're liable to see another invest out there.

1-Jun-2004 1014.48 1010.45 19.20 13.64 -0.21
2-Jun-2004 1014.73 1012.15 9.00 14.47 -0.08
3-Jun-2004 1013.14 1012.75 -6.30 14.15 -0.18
4-Jun-2004 1013.51 1012.50 -1.90 13.48 -0.29
5-Jun-2004 1014.91 1012.15 10.30 13.45 -0.35
6-Jun-2004 1015.31 1012.60 9.90 13.75 -0.37
7-Jun-2004 1013.83 1013.75 -8.50 12.70 -0.53
8-Jun-2004 1012.83 1012.70 -8.10 11.25 -0.67
9-Jun-2004 1012.56 1012.15 -6.10 10.24 -0.75
10-Jun-2004 1013.20 1012.00 -0.60 10.23 -0.72
11-Jun-2004 1015.63 1013.45 6.20 10.33 -0.67
12-Jun-2004 1015.26 1013.85 0.80 10.04 -0.76
13-Jun-2004 1013.60 1014.60 -16.10 9.28 -1.10
14-Jun-2004 1013.90 1014.50 -13.20 8.30 -1.55
15-Jun-2004 1013.76 1015.00 -17.70 6.87 -2.05
16-Jun-2004 1013.59 1015.60 -23.20 5.42 -2.59
17-Jun-2004 1013.05 1016.30 -31.90 3.81 -3.25
18-Jun-2004 1011.96 1015.80 -36.00 2.16 -3.88
19-Jun-2004 1010.31 1015.10 -42.70 0.17 -4.53

Sometimes there is a couple of weeks lag time from when the SOI goes strongly negative to when a a pulse of warm water moves eastward from the SW pacific. Nothing from there is showing up on the SSTA's yet SSTA's

Warmest water relative to average in the Atlantic right now is WSW of Spain. There are some pockets of warm water along the Eastern Seaboard and in Big Bend area Florida. One would think that Western Europe has a shot at a curving Cape Verde this year if the water in the Eastern Atlantic remains as warm as it is now relative to averages.

The energy along the coast of Central America is interesting not for development potential but for the evidence of heat buildup. There's supposed to be a trof split around day #5 which will back into Mexico and knock back some of the heights on the SW Ridge which will be followed by the typhoon recurviture which should cut into it further. That tells me SW Atlantic Ridge wlil probably be strengthening. My hunch on any pattern change or pulse development after the trof split puts any real action west of here, and wherever it is, a tropical flow should at least set back up N/S or NW/SE. In any event, I'm going to be watching the Gulf and Caribbean for the next week or two.

Steve