steve, thanks for mentioning SOI. i hadn't thought about the long paddock in a while... everybody who wants a heads up on development potential should follow that index. mjo and soi have been the best week-to-week predictive tools i've been introduced to. if anybody has a link to sites that track other indexes (pna, nao/ao, etc), by all means give it up to the crowd. they're better at telling you where the storm will go, once it forms.
i have an observation that i lack the meteorological savvy to decisively interpret, but do think it will play into the seasonal pattern... ssta's in the bering sea are well above normal, and will most likely contribute to anomalous ridging in alaska. across the continent cold ssta's are dominant near newfoundland (anomalously warm to the south). then there's that big positive ssta patch near spain further east. this configuration will at least play into our summer season longwave pattern.. i envision mean trough positions near being deep in the plains states, a shallow one near 50w, then another in eastern europe. of course wavelengths are much shorter in the summer and this is probably not on the mark... but watching the longwave pattern respond to ssta's should be an educational experience this summer.
steve mentioned that a recurving hurricane might get sst support most of the way to europe if the waters keep heating the way they have out there. a system recurving that hard would have a tough time not undergoing extratropical transition on the way.. and honestly i don't want to hear all the global warming doom-criers shrieking about hurricanes hitting brazil and portugal in the same year. so i'm intrigued by the idea, but won't entertain it further than that.
since i'm near the topic of climate trends, arctic sea ice is receding faster and further than the short record of 'normal', though it does this every summer like clockwork as of late.
HF 1708z19june