steve, i need to get my thinking straight. SOI telegraphed the mean bermuda ridge strength somewhat, if i remember correctly. also there was something about how it altered the sst trends in the equatorial pacific. wasn't it negative SOI meant westerly flow, positive SOI meant easterly flow? and didn't westerly mean trend to warming ENSO? gotta help me out here.. i understood it at one time..
i've been looking at old global sst anomaly charts, comparing them to what we've been seeing so far this year. two that look most familiar are 1990 and 2003, to this year. wouldn't i just pick a pair of active years...
actually with the neutral signal it's hard to have a definitive feel. if el nino is coming on, it's going to have to hurry to cap the season. right now it's all systems go for an active year. james' mention of the quiet eastpac is also something to consider. that's if it keeps up (ten days to go for a no-storm june).
every year it's something different.
HF 0009z21june