July certainly seems to be the most reasonable time for the first storm to form, because as you said, conditions aren't really favourable for development now. Maybe if something makes it into the Gulf we could have Alex, but there doesn't look like much chance of this happening anytime soon.

Just looking at the Hurricane Alley website, and they expect two storms to form in July. One in the Gulf, and one in the Atlantic of the East Coast. They also expect it to be an active CV year - they forecast 6 to form in the open Atlantic. It will be interesting to see if this plays out.

Hurricane Alley 2004 Forecast