i'd be hard pressed to come up with as good an analysis of upcoming trends in the tropics. as a counterpoint, i'll play devil's advocate for some other things that i think may come to pass (not with true conviction, but with a speculative interest) during the first 2-3 weeks of july.
soi may (can't say will) go positive again, or at least neutral into early july. add to that nao flipping to positive (trough splitting near the east coast with a good strong atlantic ridge, cutoffs underneath).. and then throw in the fact that an mjo wave should be around in early july.. and whee, i'm thinking development in the subtropics. have this feeling that we'll finally see alex on a decaying front or some other type of mid latitude cutoff (25-30N has primed ssts all the way to near the azores). keep seeing vestiges of the TUTT advertised on the globals, as it goes through its warbling, discontinuous cycle of development and metamorphosis during the early summer... thus don't think anything significant can happen in the deep tropics (unless it's hours or minutes away from land ahoy in central america).. fairly reasonable that alex and perhaps bonnie will be mid-latitude july quickies. ya know, like the ones during summer 2002, or 1997. if we get mdr systems, they'll probably be the types we saw last year.. depressions that open back up in a day or two. doesn't look like a claudette could make it right now, or anytime soon.
as soi goes back the other way (assuming it really does), have to wait/see how the nino zone ssts respond over the next month. if we don't see a good shot of warming, count el nino out... and if el nino is out to pasture, then we get to see if all the gloomy core season predictions come true, and the big-uns come too close for comfort come august/september. 1960, 1985, 1992.. is bastardi trying to set himself up for a forecast letdown? anybody who knows hurricane history knows those years.. one with multiple notable and less notable hits, the other two having one tremendous haymaker hit on florida, and a secondary or two.
so is this year going to be another year of ultra-threatening but ultimately moderate opals, georges, floyds, lilis, isabels? can we dodge another couple of bullets, ya think?
better question for.. oh, august.
HF 0311z26june