I'm not that excited by the EPAC disturbance. It has a ways to go before developing...the environment is only marginally favorable...and global models don't do much with it. Very slight chance we'll see a weak TC from it, but nothing significant.

Actually, I'm a little more intrigued by a low pressure progged to develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week. The GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET all show tropical development by Day 5 and take it on a general WNW track parallel to the Mexican coastline through the end of the forecast period. Indeed we've seen the models in agreement on EPAC development more than once already this season...so it could easily turn out to be nothing. But taking into account we're already approaching July, and a strong negative MJO (which has spawned several typhoons in the WPAC this month) will be scooting into the EPAC region soon...I do think this upcoming system will have a better chance than the teaser lows we've seen so far this EPAC season. Model trends/consistency is the key...it's only been a few runs that the models above have shown anything, and I would like to have ECMWF jump aboard as well before I actually call for anything from it. Just something to watch for now in this quiet time for both the Atlantic and EPAC.