they're calling for a landmark year. if we don't get one, they blew it.. simple as that. personally gotta go with the conservative side here.. don't see that many landfalls this year (though i do expect a couple to be noteworthy, and perhaps a couple just humdum). a real coup for accuwx if we get walloped a few times, though.
the only really spooky thing is how hard this year is to analog. enso is in limbo, and a lot of the analogs i've seen from various forecast sources don't ring very true (1990 and 2003 are mine, though i can see glaring inconsistencies).
one thing i have a decent mind on.. don't think this year's active spell starts last two weeks of august a la 1998/99. by late this month or early august we should have popped a few off. i'll be really surprised if we get to august without having had a couple.
HF 0101z02july