congrats, phil. on the other hand something has ed out of the loop, which probably isn't good.. hope the man is doing alright.
that little system in the eastpac finally got a classification, though it undoubtedly will never get any stronger. only of interest since it may be signaling that the very sluggish mjo wave is finally getting some influence in our hemisphere. summercyclone pointed out the little mcc poking around off the carolina coast.. expect it to collapse and definitely go out to sea. think it ballsy to hedge bets on a heavy season.. but i've come to not expect such and probably won't ever predict one unless the signs are unmistakable (or a heavy one comes along and makes me less of a skeptic).
for now globals aren't picking up on much. showing a bit more of an active wave train later in the period, but i wouldn't put any stock into that (later in july maybe). may be a disturbance in the nw caribbean later next week, low confidence. lots of TUTT activity.. a pattern not conducive to low-latitude development.. and not a lot of blocking or cutting-off from the main flow in the mid-latitudes.. between those factors there isn't much room for stuff to happen. oh, and there's troughing persisting near the east coast.. the sort of thing that turns an active season into a mild one if it persists into fall. not that i have any real thoughts on whether that will happen.
HF 2242z02july