steve, usa in decline? i don't see anybody else in the world i'd want filling our shoes who could... so lets hope that isn't the case. regardless there are enough of us who won't go down quietly.
earlier on i made a post contrary to rob m's on how the tropics would behave this month.. if model trends are going to hold out then i might lose that one. the mid-latitude development i was looking for would need amplification and pattern shifs.. all those neutral signals paired with a zonal appearance on gfs by mid-month (once the current kinks get worked out) depth-charge my idea. steve gave the heads-up on the current wave (think it's really at 45w).. models have been a little wishy-washy with it, and have trended south. by mid-week we should have a good fix on its real potential. other waves will emerge.. two more significant ones appear on gfs plots.. the first is depicted as getting too far north and caught for a few days in the mid-atlantic in a ridge split.. the second pushes across to the caribbean much like the one currently entering the area should. out of the aforementioned systems i do expect a named tropical cyclone to develop. right now the pattern is transitioning and some of the trough energy east of florida (70w) may also try to fester, though there isn't a convincing model depiction of this.
anyhow, one other thing i'd like to note. wave speed right now appears a bit slower than normal.. low level easterlies don't seem quite as strong. as the ridge flattens out this may change, but i suspect that if the waves keep the throttle settings the same and mjo goes negative and knocks the shear down, systems will have a relatively easy time organizing. could be active later this month.
HF 1939z04july