evening mjo's arrival becomes very apparent and the system goes offline temporarily.. bummer, cause i had lots of things to say last night that have been brought up today. and covered, so i'll just rehash and give my interpretation.
the wave out in front that looked like a carib/gulf development threat over the weekend has very little signature and enough easterly momentum that it won't have an opportunity to do anything. gfs is tracking two waves it considers development worthy--it maintains 95L until the weekend then develops a weak surface system early next week for the islands.. as it runs into shear ahead of an upper low max backing along the tutt axis. it then promptly loses the system, not via shear, but by the dulling of resolution past 7 days (the remnant moisture plods onward to florida by the end of next week). a couple days behind it a second system, which it treats a bit more favorable, trods along on a more southerly track, checked by easterly shear on the se flank of the upper ridge max in tandem with the upper low ahead. makes some sense, but these are just ballpark until a better fix on either system is attained.
right now i'd give either of these features a moderate development chance. both will probably have to get east of 40w to do anything, and will be contending with variable shear profiles and whatever SAL has in the mix. 95L will probably pulse down for a day or two, then reinvigorate as it gets near 40w. the trailer i'm less sure about (its trajectory will have to be similar to 95L or it will lose its definition/potential). i wouldn't look for a named system down there prior to july 10-11, and a lot can happen between now and then to preclude any of that. 30-40% on either.. net 50% that something happens at all.
more immediately there is that old piece of front south of bermuda. sc and alex k have identified this thing and pretty much explained it. fish spinner fodder, but presently it has the best chance to go soonest. it will probably meander for a couple days, then jerk NE along with a shortwave max.. but until then there appears to be a mid-level low and surface trough there, and it is looking better all the time. i like it, 50% right now. i'm wondering why the nhc hasn't mentioned it (as usual with stuff in fish-spinner land).
anyway, mjo has the switch on. james88 i've heard mjo lasts 30-40 days, but watching the motion anomaly maps (haven't had that page work in a while) a couple years back and the longitude/time diagrams you can see now.. it doesn't really move in linear pulses, but propagates eastward with a sort of discontinous, skippy pace. in my experience it's usually been 2-3 weeks that the basin will be alight, with an odd week on either side. sometimes a little mini-pulse will come by. there's really no telling.. without the time-series anomaly maps i don't have a real clue. anyway james, i guess you must know rich byett (you two are in gloucester and the only folks in europe i ever see post). enjoy what summer you guys have up there. actually, you ought to try something we can't do at my latitude.. think you can photograph some noctilucent clouds?
HF 2150z06july