in a word, yeah. there's potential. as usual the gfs, usually the prime source of ideas, initializes things differently every run.. nogaps has less in mind.
former 95L has bravely (insanely?) opted for a northerly track, and is over waters typically below hurricane support threshold. sal is also doing a bit (not a lot) to keep it in check.. the result is a system with decent vorticity, and shallow convection that keeps trying to go. and go it will if there's much of a wave left when it gets near 50w.. 48 hours out. 40%, pending how it does next 2 days.
last night i considered the disturbance near bermuda as the leader candidate.. hasn't really improved though due to a chaotic upper air pattern nearby. there's still a surface trough and some convection, but no part of it seems to be taking off right now. i'll 30% it. the new wave has model enthusiasm but nothing really special about it.
as far as pattern evolution, same basic idea. basin goes more zonal, with pulses on the TUTT and ridge cells.. a trough-splitting pattern after a fashion, with retarded progression in the mid-latitudes in spite of a fairly flat flow. down the road gfs continues to suggest development threats, out past mid-month. things not as imminent as i thought last night (gunjumper oh yes i am), but more than likely still going to happen.
HF 0157z08july