I think it is reasonable to expect a named storm this July. It would be very surprising if one did not form. Records since 1886 dictate that a tropical storm or hurricane will form in July about seven times every 10 years. In the last 10 years six seasons have experienced a named storm in July. Therefore, the averages dictate that a storm will form this month. Of course, the weather pays no attention to statistics, so there is no guarantee that anything will form. Even so, I'd be surprised if we didn't have Alex at some point in the next 21 days.