Joe1954,

I see you're calling 15 named storms. Wanna take a crack at TS/HUR/MAJ?

Bugs,

I won't say it's 100% against development for the Yucatan mess, but probably 99%. It will be near the Tex/Mex border sometime tomorrow, so there's probably not enough time for anything to develop. It WILL, however, be a huge rainmaker.

I think we're all so anxious for a first storm that we're all jumping on every bit of disturbed weather hoping it's "the one".

While it certainly wouldn't be unprecedented not to have a named storm by August, it wouldn't necessarily mean a slow season, as Rob pointed out earlier. If the MJO flip noted by Steve and Rob (and JoeB) does happen as discussed, we may not have much activity until mid-August...but then...BAM.

Cheers,

LI Phil