have a commentary on mjo, gonna toss it on one of the forums to appease the moderator gods. it can be greatly expanded upon if anybody is willing to make the effort.. check it out if the spirit moves you. should be there in a while.
today is the climatological date of named storm #1.. it was also my second try at tagging the first named storm. no dice there. i was really pumped about things going off last week, when mjo arrived and gfs started coughing up phantom storms.. still waiting for some verification. it is interesting that the late-organizing wave in the bay of campeche got the 'go' signature (96L did also earlier this week).. that's all eastpac fodder now. speaking of which they have one system looking very perky (mentioned by several) and another itcz disturbance near costa rica that models are picking up on too.. blas and celia if both decide to form. it works better in the core of the atlantic season.. but there is rather frequently a five-nine day lag between eastpac and atlantic formation. don't see a very good reason for it to work this time, but you never know. models losing 95L, following a wave in the east altantic (gfs has been suggestive, but not with great conviction). translates to, don't expect anything next week, just keep a lazy eye out.
gonna stay with a first storm as a mid-latitude cutoff, but have to admit mann's mdr breakout system may be our 2004 season christener. i may get a candidate in a week or so, northeast atlantic.. as if anybody cares.
HF 0224z12july