Rob Mann posted this in the storm forum, but Ed said it's ok for the main board. Here is a great post explaining MJO:

"At the moment, a negative MJO pulse stretches from the EPAC through the African continent. Obviously it's not enough to bring our basin to life right now...the mid-latitudes have pretty much shut off as we move deeper in summer, so less chance of a frontal originating system in the GOM or W ATL like we often see in June. And in the tropical Atlantic, the strong subtropical ridge and SAL are still choking our tropical waves...not as badly as earlier, but still enough to keep anything from forming. Typical for this time of year regardless of MJO. With all that being said, and no real system being shown by the models in the next week...it looks like this negative MJO will come and go with no TC forming in the ATL.

But that brings me to another point. This means that we'll probably have a positive MJO set in the region beginning sometime in the next 1-2 weeks...which then favors the next negative MJO moving into the ATL around the Aug 15-20 period. If this timing is correct, it's PERFECT timing for a burst of strong activity in late Aug through early Sep. Going far far in the range here, but this burst could be followed by a calmer period in mid Sep...then another (somewhat smaller) burst of activity in the end of Sep and early Oct. This is all assuming the MJO sticks on its extraploated schedule...as seen in the past, MJO pulses can slow or speed up unexpectedly, which in that case would lead to completely different timing than I described above. BUT, if it does happen that way...as you may have already noticed, it's basically the same MJO pattern seen in 1998.

It also means there's a small chance we may not get our first named storm until mid Aug, as Phil pointed out. Though a positive MJO doesn't mean a named storm CAN'T form...just makes it harder. Based on analogs and climatologically alone though, I'd be a little surprised if we don't see Alex by the end of the month.

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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast "