i've got some vague, but useful MJO related-stuff over on the forum ed posted the other night. it really poses more questions than answers.
the basin today has a tamer, less interesting look. nice convection is blowing near the brink of central america, useless stuff for development this time of year (low level easterlies send it off). the old 95L wave is looking junky now. new one near 25w is itcz embedded (though otherwise not too bad).. days to be something, probably not at all.
that powerful negative SOI is around two weeks gone, growing warm sst patch in the central pacific appears to have stopped surging. based on the mjo plots, i'd say SOI will be tapering down and keeping us in neutral ENSO this fall. that means, if i had a season forecast that i was considering changing, i wouldn't change it (don't anyway).
aside from the stuff i mentioned above over in the other forum, i think i've found some more info on the 1953 pattern.. going to see if there's anything to it.
blah, i'm just rambling. another quiet week (blas notwithstanding).
HF 0046z13july