Bastardi put out a note on the SWC and Gulf today. He mentioned that the MLC heading SW through the gulf could get entangled with the wave axis pulling west. He doesn't think it's a go (noted the models) but that the main thrust of the wave would head westward through Central America. It's a wait and see as to whether or not any of the SWC convection can get pulled up to the northwest. Another interesting note he dropped that I hadn't picked up on was the similarity in the pattern in the Gulf and Caribbean to 1999 (nobody's analog that I can remember). He mentioned Bret which kind of formed in the BoC from a wave that snuck in from the SWC but that was in August rather than July. He pondered whether this is telling us something for later on in the season (one may recall he's got Texas at > Cat 2 influence this year).

Interestingly SW FL got hit by 2 mini-storms that year too (if the Gulf pattern ends up following in the footsteps of 1999).

FWIW, here's the Bret FAQ.

Steve