i've heard sc and bobbi pointing and fussing about two particular areas for the last couple of days; reserved comment (decided both would go away, never amount to anything.. the weather, not the people). but neither system has made as quick an exit as i suspected, so i'll give them each a prop this afternoon.
sw caribbean is wave action at the surface with upper ventilation that is staying in place.. perhaps some weak convergence. expected 850mb easterlies to clean this area out, send it eastpac-king.. but it's insisting it's there today (as is bobbi). like a meteorologic god i am willing it to leave the basin as it should.. yes, very little doubt it's leaving the basin. if it's nudging the yucatan tomorrow i'll start paying attention.
now, the gulf thing. something so terribly insignificant for the last couple of days i can't believe the feature is lingering. summercyclone is even worse than me when it comes to poking around the subtropics for slim-to-none features (incredible). it's in an area of some upper divergence (decent-good for development).. and has a very weak surface trough.. and then there's scattered mjo-aided convection. again, i am willing it to go away, or drift west into mexico. of course even without looking at models i know heights are going to fall over the eastern u.s. late in the week, and that should keep it's westward progress slow. i'd say it has slightly more of a chance.. if it lingers in the gulf. but it has a hell of a long way to go.
east atlantic isn't causing much ruckus. waves come off and melt like the wicked witch of the west. there's the blas clock, and the upstream implications of it's presence (probably aiding the riding over the sw caribbean via upper wake effects).. over the weekend and into early next week would be the window if that correspondence were to work. it's usually more of an august-september thing, prolly no dice.
there's really nothing happening, that was all too much to write. phil, it's a'ite, you can put the nix on the 'good post' thing. i won't feel bad, for one. constructive criticism is my preferred feedback (just the way i am).
..otherwise, i might start making bad posts just to spite you.
HF 2231z13july