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The SOI has been staying negative and the SST's have been somewhat increasing around the equator. I know most of the pros have said neutral for this season and I hope there right. The question is when will EL Nino be truely established?? The waves are starting to look like the last El Nino when they came off and poof. I think it is more climo then any El Nino effect. I still think around 14 names this year because it's still early and there are more + then - effects for this season. 
ENSO region 3.4 has been warming but regions 1 and 2 are relatively cooler than average. There are a lot of warming fluctiations due to MJO and SOI changes but I don't see any long term trends that would incidcate that we're about to have an El Nino event. The SOI has been fluctuating a lot but the 90 day average is actually slightly positive.
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Re: EL NINO