>>Thanks for replying Jason. Let's end the El Nino discussion here & now, please.

nowayman. El Nino, dude. Smokin'. Partying around Christmas. Ninomeister. El Torro. The boy. Man boobs.

*ahem*

The ENSO forecast models are trending more and more toward neutral each month. There will be mixed signals over the next few months, but ultimately it will be the Atlantic Water Temps that will be most influential over what forms where and how strong it gets. Speaking of Atlantic Water Temperature Profiles (nice segweigh, eh?), temperatures off of West Central Florida are approaching 90. Yikes. That's nearing Jacuzzi temps.

https://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif

Also shows some of Bastardi's thinking in regards to a strong-severe Western Florida year.

While I'm at it, here's a great site you might want to bookmark for Canadian activity:

http://www.novaweather.net/

Steve