what? no NO...
we're not transitioning out of a mega el nino event into a strong la nina. that was 1998. nothing so drastic.. we're enso neutral, whole different animal. 1953 is the quoted year i keep hearing.. i don't really know much about that season aside from the storm tracks and distribution (active/mostly nonlandfalling season). as far as getting an mjo signature match.. that would be even tougher. my analog years of 1990 and 2003 featured an mjo damping event.. it literally faded to nothing for a month or two either summer. perhaps they aren't that good.
i'm not really impressed by any of the analog years, to be honest. 14/14/16 named storms on the spread. 1990 had yet to start (arthur 22july).
models right now not providing much hope of anything developing near term. emerging wave signature is tracked but nothing more. will need some more run to run insistence before giving it more than a glance.
HF 2147z14july