Hey Phil...
Right now the GFS or other global models don't show anything that raises an eyebrow with the later-to-be TW over continental Africa. Can't go completely by what the models show when we're dealing with something 5+ days out...but I assume they're picking up on a continued dry environment due to SAL and ridge-forcing subsidence. In that case, it'd be basically just as hard for this upcoming wave as the one in progress. Since it's still a ways out I'm not going to say yes or no as to whether it'll become something...but as it stands now, don't hold your breath.

Another thing I want to add...the negative MJO pulse currently over the ATL should be moving out in a week or so, making way for the positive MJO. When a positive MJO is over the region, conditions tend to be less conducive for TC development...as you probably already know. However, it does NOT completely prevent TC development. Even if a positive MJO is over the region, it doesn't mean there's no chance of Alex until the next negative MJO...just makes it a bit harder more or less depending on the other environmental factors. It certainly prevents multiple storm outbreaks, but we can see a lonely TC when the MJO isn't enough to stop favorable conditions in a certain area. So I wouldn't look at it as "no Alex now, no Alex until mid August when the next favorable MJO comes." Indeed if we don't see Alex within a week or so that may very well be the case...but if the dry air and SAL subside enough and couple with the already-favorable factors (W QBO, warm ATC, no El Nino, lower than normal shear, lower than normal SLPAs, slightly warmer than normal SSTAs)...then with the right TW that exits Africa, we could still get a TS, regardless of MJO.

In any case, what is likely is that when that negative MJO DOES enter the basin...all will break loose. Timing still suggests it'll reach the ATL in mid Aug...perfect time to coincide a big bang (if you will) in TC activity. Going to be interesting to see what happens.

As for the system in late May over the DR...I wasn't paying much attention to it at the time, as it happened when Jason and I were busy polishing our 2004 forecast. However, from the satellite images I did see, and ones I found archived...there definately was a low pressure (no doubt), but I don't think it was strong enough to be classified as a TD/TS. Yes, there could have been observations of TD/TS force winds in some locations...but 1)that's to be expected in squalls associated with any strong low, and 2)as I recall they were well away from the center. Plus, convection was being enhanced in part by upper level divergence/shear...so it wasn't a very barotropic system. This would explain my second point about the winds recorded. A very deadly, heavy rainmaker it was, but TC it was not...IMO.