Time to jump back in, looks like we'll see action pretty soon.

Check this out:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/caribbean.gif

We still don't have a west wind. From the looks of this map, we don't have a closed circ yet. I wouldn't worry though, the system seems to be organizing this afternoon despite rapid forward movement. I have a weird (and probably incorrect) feeling that NHC will classify this as a TD at 5. Ah, that young gut.

The models are trending more westerly with their tracks this afternoon. Sure, we have a big trough that's going to weaken this Bermuda High over the next couple of days. But this system is still moving quickly westward, indicative of a strong east-to-west flow. So while I feel that a northerly movement is lurking as a possiblity, a more westerly track is interesting to me. Besides, climotology doesn't necessairily support this system curving to the north.

Let the storms roll...