Jason,

Excellent analysis, as always. Many good reasons for development NOT to occur. Even I don't think we'll see much improvement for the next 24-48 hours or so. However, accuwx doesn't have quite the same take on the situation:

"A strong tropical wave is located near 57 west, and some thunderstorms ahead of the wave are moving into the Windward islands of the Caribbean. This wave has a good low-level circulation, and will be watched closely for further development over the next couple of days as it moves through the Caribbean Sea. There is a chance that this system will become the first Atlantic tropical depression of season sometime Tuesday or Wednesday as it heads toward the west or northwest over the Caribbean."

And I'm certainly NOT saying they're right and you're wrong...far from it...you and Rob have been spot on so far.

However, with Blas and now Celia, you have to think there's some teleconnections somewhere down the road for Alex.

Luis, you're not going to see Alex, but you're probably in for a good 12 hours or so of some tropical mischief (you lucky bastid).

TWC's Steve Lyons is acknowledging this wave at least. He did just make a good point that the thunderstorm activity is separating itself from the LLC (which IS there), and that's certainly not indicative of strengthening. Plus, like Old Sailor said (and others), the eastern carib is NOT an area where tropical cyclones form.

Ne'ertheless, I'm banking on this puppy holding together long enough to get itself into a better area (where that is right now, I don't know), but I still wouldn't bet against this getting into the Bahamas sometime near the weekend and then, well, lets just wait and see.

Ya gotta admit that this one has held itself together better than ANYONE (except of course, me) thought. I'm willing to go down with the ship, but I will not abandon it.

Cheers,

LI Phil