I was told earlier that I was writing this system off too soon, but apparantly it is starting to fall apart
there has been only one storm in the eastern Caribbean from Jul 20-31 (I say the 20th because you will probably all agree this will not be a TS at 11pm)

this and the fact that the Africa system is rapidly falling apart and elongating to the NW, along with water temps and the fact that we are getting late in the month, are why I lowered my forecast to 14. It was carefully studied and not just an impatient jump