Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 20 2004 12:14 AM
TROPICAL DISCUSSION

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 20W S OF 18N MOVING W
5-10 KT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE DAKAR UPPER-AIR
SOUNDING AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE DAKAR SOUNDING SHOWS
A WELL-DEFINED WAVE PASSAGE ABOUT 24 HRS AGO IMPLYING THE WAVE
POSITION WOULD BE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WHILE A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 12N18W. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS A COMPROMISE OF BOTH DATA SOURCES AND
ASSUMES AN UNUSUALLY SLOW SPEED OF 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 13W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 58W S OF
16N RACING W 25-30 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS
OF MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE N AND S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY
FAST MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM...ONLY AN INVERTED TROUGH SIGNATURE
IS NOTED WITHIN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD. DESPITE THE FAST
MOTION...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES INTO A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS AND SQUALLY
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
...PRIMARILY FROM TRINIDAD/TOBAGO TO GUADELOUPE...THIS EVENING
THEN ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TOMORROW.

the wave from yesterday in the carribean is almoat completely gone, and it was fairly strong going in



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