predictions are just that--predictions. they have to be changed and refined as the situations change. I have held to the 15 storm forecast for quite a while, but we are nearing the end of teh month and everything comming off of Africa seems to be dissipating as it moves over water, and the upper winds over the Atlantic are going to remain unfavorable for the forseeable future.

As for my earlier mentioning of both systems looking good, the Africa system has become very poorly organized in recent hours, and the Antilles system has lost nearly all deep convection around the "center" if there is one, and there is nothing more that a weak wave at the surface, and it is moving into the eastern Caribbean

It is still possible for it to become a TD, and it is very likely we will have a TD this month, but i dont do depression forecasts, as there doesnt seem to be a noticable trend to use for seasonable depression forecasts, and the data doesnt go back as far as the storm data does

I am saying that nothing will make it through harsh winds or dry air long enough to be named, and I am still forecasting a very above average season, just a late start

one other thing: what was meant when everyone was talking about "analog" seasons? I'm not entirely sure what you meant, who ever mentioned it