Invest 97L now moving into the Windward Islands with a mid-level circulation near 12N 59W at 20/00Z. Movement continues to the west at 20kts. As with many embrionic systems, this wave had a couple of circulation centers - both mid-level. As stated yesterday in the Storm Forum, this was a wave worth watching for the next couple of days and that statement is still true. Without a cohesive convective core, any development (I'm still not convinced yet that there will be) will be slow. Movement should continue at a good pace to the west and eventually west northwest. If the wave should eventually strengthen, it would be less influenced by the low-level flow and would probably head in the general direction of the Yucatan Channel - but thats a long way off from now.

Regarding El Nino having an impact on this season...well, not very likely. We may eventually get to a weak El Nino state, but it will not happen until the season is over - perhaps in the December-January timeframe - and thats not certain either. The ENSO pattern so far this year is pretty close to the patterns that were observed in 1953 and 1990 - and to a lesser extent to 1969 (1969 was a tad warmer). The oceans are very conservative, i.e., it takes a long time for change to take place. Its probably smarter to look at month to month (or even season to season) changes in SSTs rather than week to week changes when you are trying to determine a trend.

Lots of great links were posted today - nice job!

Some of you need to take a deep breath and relax a bit. I know that everyone has been anticipating the first significant system - we've been spoiled by all of the early season activity over the past few years - but this year is still very normal in terms of the overall season - normally this happens about once every three years. The season is young and we've still got a long way to go - and don't get too excited about this wave. It may not amount to much - but others will, so save some energy and enthusiasm for those.

I know that some of you really don't like to hear this, but the keyword really is 'patience' when it comes to the tropics. Try to be tolerant of the other persons point of view since we are all here to enjoy a common pursuit.
Cheers,
ED