ed doesn't sound overly excited. reminds me of john hope sometimes with the cautious, mindful approach to things. same basic message here.
spent the weekend in north carolina; didn't bother to drop a post last night (saw incipient 97L but didn't have anything to say that hadn't already been said). as of tonight it looks decent, with bursting convection and some weak banding features. with its current translational speed and convective organization i doubt there is a surface low, probably a notable windshift line though. has to slow down to do much. expect the low level flow to carry it further south and east than model predicitons.. shear should be inhibiting but not fatal. i'd give it 3 in 10 to be a system in the nw caribbean thursday morning.
probably going to be a great deal of surface convergence and residual cool air aloft as the eastern longwave recedes during the week off the southeast coast. whenever the upper westerlies peel out, watch whatever gets caught between the TUTT and the next digging pulse on the eastern trough. nothing particularly suggestive on models, but there usually isn't at this stage in the game.
itcz/wave train doing nothing particularly unusual for this time of year. globals resolve a low here and there but aren't latchign strongly to anything from run-to-run.
the appearance of 97L came roughly a week after blas formed.. that connection worked out (as it sometimes does). with celia popping up there may be something else down the road.
SOI took a nosedive over the weekend, strongly negative again. if this keeps happening we will be into a weak el nino by fall. it's too late to nix the season, but our numbers could still be shaved down.
this front blowing through the southeast in mid july really got my attention. fairly amplified pattern, ups the chances of subtropical activity. one way or another there's a decent chance we get a july storm.
HF 0200z20july