good analysis.. dont see how this wave is deep enough at this point for anyone to see it going up the East Coast or aiming at S. Florida. IF a storm develops out of this wave it is too far west at this point to think of much else but a GOM storm. And... maybe depending on how the set up to the north plays out.. could be Eastern Gulf but that remains to be seen. First let it play out.

quoting here...well done ..really well said

"In the second scenario, the tropical wave is pushed further west into the western Caribbean Sea and maybe eventually into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This track is likely to happen if the wave remains shallow enough to escape the mid-level south-southeasterly flow in response to the trough. All of the tropical models, including the BAMM, BAMD, and GFDL forecast this movement. Additionally, the ECMWF and now possibly the GFS show a more westward track. "