I am still a little sceptical that this wave will become anything--the winds are weaker, it is less organized with outflow boundaries racing westward, and it is much flatter on the wind field than 24 hours ago

also, i am going to make a few tweaks to my forecast, including a small increase because I still think that the EP going all of June without a depression is a sign the Atlantic will be active, just as 1997 going all of Aug with no Atlantic systems occured during an active East Pacific season

here is my update:

JUL nothing
AUG 4/3/2
SEP 5/3/2
OCT 4/2/1
NOV 1/1/0
total: 14/9/5
i am forecasting a November system because I think we are due; there has not been one in two or three years

since the forecast is broken down into months, it will be updated monthly

(example: i am forecasting 4 storms by the end of August; if there are 5, the seasonal forecast will be increased to 15)

this is, however, the last forecast where I will alter the forecasts per month, unless we have an extremely quiet peak (such as only having one or two storms by mid-September)