Enjoyed the post Supercane/Rob Mann, it's a lot of common sense stuff, but you hit it all. There is a 3rd possibility. Bastardi mentioned in yesterday's Long Ranger [tm] that the classic "B-North" pattern is setting up. Often that opens up the SE Coast. However, because of a very cold surface high pressure scheduled to be in the Great Lakes, you can't discount anything to its south. He thinks there's an equal possibility that the wave can split with energy ending up off the Carolina Coast and also something in the Gulf with a front expected in the Gulf (again!) by the weekend. Wave energy (if not wave-origin stuff) could then ignite whatever is in those respective areas.

Steve