hmm, lets see. rob m took care of the scenarios for 97L, so i'll just tack on that i favor the weaker-westerly solution, even though the overall movement of the system so far has been noticeably north of west. w/wnw movement for the next 2 days.. slowing. it isn't anywhere near as far along as i'd thought (movement not the speedy 25mph of yesterday), and convection is holding on. don't expect anything to kill it outright, so it should keep poking along.. maybe doing nothing and maybe finding an opportunity to develop. 1000-800 mb easterlies probably causing a good bit of low-level shear and preventing anything well defined at the surface for the time being.
more interesting look in the far east atlantic (evidence of cross-equatorial flow convergence picking up). may just be a momentary thing, but sure to help any waves organize if it persists.
NAO is good and positive right now, so the trough near the east coast will snag and split. i'm not so sure about any reinforcing shots keeping it in place, globals keep pointing to the mid-layer ridge holding pretty much in place off the east coast. the shortwave zipping by the northeast fri/sat shouldn't do more than yank out anything that is brewing off the east coast.. as always whatever is hanging underneath near the bahamas/off hatteras will be of interest. globals suggest there may be a low trying to form, and a good deal of surface convergence/upper support will remain in place even after the next shortwave passes by.
chances of development are still mild at this point. it's just watch and wait on the carib system.
HF 2206z20july