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Enjoyed the post Supercane/Rob Mann, it's a lot of common sense stuff, but you hit it all. There is a 3rd possibility. Bastardi mentioned in yesterday's Long Ranger [tm] that the classic "B-North" pattern is setting up. Often that opens up the SE Coast. However, because of a very cold surface high pressure scheduled to be in the Great Lakes, you can't discount anything to its south. He thinks there's an equal possibility that the wave can split with energy ending up off the Carolina Coast and also something in the Gulf with a front expected in the Gulf (again!) by the weekend. Wave energy (if not wave-origin stuff) could then ignite whatever is in those respective areas.
Steve
Rob and I have been discussing the possibility of the wave interacting with the front down the road. It would certainly make things more interesting in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, if the wave took that path. This is beyond the 120H period so there is still a lot of uncertainty. As you said, some energy along the northern edge of the wave axis could get drawn northward. But most of the wave's energy should continue on a westward heading.
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Re: my slightly increased forecast