Hopefully this post won't get me banned from accuwx, but here's JBs rationale:

"The strong wave near 15 north and 65 west is heading in a body and soul type idea northwestward and will have to do battle with Hispaniola. That means that until it gets by there, there is little chance for development. The question is what becomes of it. An interesting side possibility is that energy shooting out to its west now continues westward for the Gulf and is something that can throw a spark on whatever is going on with the front in the western Gulf this weekend. That is something that will have to be watched. The other is that the other part that emerges from the battle with Hispaniola heads north-northwestward into the waiting mish mosh of events near the coastal Carolinas this weekend"

Haven't really checked any radars/sats tonight, but earlier, the idea that was thrown out that this wave will "split" with the northern section perhaps interacting with Hispaniola and the Bahamas and the southern section entraining into the GOM seems to have some merit. Will need to watch tomorrow, starting to get real ragged tonight.

Cheers,

LI Phil