I consider myself somewhat of an expert when it comes to forecasting tropical events; the best example was my spot-on forecast with Irene in 1999 when NHC forecast it to go west of Tampa. But when I am wrong, I admit it, and this may (hopefully) be one of those times.

look at the lump in Haiti between Cap-Hatien in Haiti and the border with Dominican Rebublic, and look directly south at about 16-17N, something is definately turning, although weak
this could be the circulation, because at 15N the LOW clouds in a very small area are going to the east (I say low level because they dont really show up as high clouds on IR images)

visible floater