TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND
LIKELY REACH JAMAICA TOMORROW AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN