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No problem y'all. Here's the 2:05 TWD. It addresses the lack of a west wind and the apparent LLC that popped out west of the system earlier today. I'd say wait for the 5 o'clock TWO. I don't think they'll classify it today, but it's getting close. Put me in the blue state column that this (if not the trailing wave with the low pressure behind it) will probably be Alex by the time it's all said and done. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W/72W S OF 20N MOVING W 20-25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER POPPING OUT WEST OF THE CONVECTION FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT THE FEATURE HAS SINCE MOVED BACK UNDER THE CANOPY OF THE ASSOCIATED TSTMS. WHEN THE CIRCULATION WAS EXPOSED...IT WAS NOT CLEAR THAT IT WAS AT THE SURFACE AND A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING AGREED BY NOT SHOWING A WLY WIND COMPONENT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 15-20 KT OF WLY SHEAR COURTESY OF A STATIONARY MID/UPPER LOW N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT THE SHEAR MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE WAVE MOVES FARTHER W OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 68W-73W. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NW. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES...ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. Steve |